Breakfast how to save lots of money fast briefs archive – farmlead

Grain markets this morning are mostly in the green, following yesterday’s june WASDE report which showed some bullish numbers for how to save lots of money fast corn prices. While the USDA lowered their expectation of corn yields by how to save lots of money fast 10 full bushels – from 176 bushels per acre (bpa) in the may WASDE report to 166 bpa in this how to save lots of money fast WASDE report – there are some doubts about whether the cut was enough, and if the USDA has the acreage number right. Bullish crop progress precedes bullish WASDE report

First things first, the crop progress report published monday afternoon by the USDA how to save lots of money fast said that corn planted was at 83% complete as of sunday, june 9 th. [ 1] this still leaves about 15 million acres of corn left how to save lots of money fast to plant entering the second week of june! However, the USDA, in their june WASDE report yesterday dropped corn acres by how to save lots of money fast 3M! This reduction in acres is a new record for the how to save lots of money fast USDA in terms of a one-month change. The previous record was set in 1995 when the USDA how to save lots of money fast cut 2M corn acres in the june WASDE report, going from 75.3M to 73.3M acres. Granted, that year, by now, the crop was completely planted.

The other thing worth noting was that the percentage of how to save lots of money fast the U.S. Corn crop rated good-to-excellent (G/E) came in at just 59%. This is a bit bullish considering that it is 15 how to save lots of money fast points behind the five-year average and 18 points behind the 77% G/E first rating a year ago. As usual, karen braun of reuters has been on the ball and how to save lots of money fast provides some good perspective of how things look year-over-year and on a state-by-state basis for corn crop conditions. [ 2]

On soybeans, 60% of the U.S. Crop in the ground as of this past sunday. While that is still way behind the 88% average for this time of year, it was a jump of 21% week-over-week. The main eyebrow-raising datapoint I’m looking at though is that only 34% of the crop has emerged, well behind the 73% five-year average we usually see by the second weekend of how to save lots of money fast june. Put simply, thanks to mother nature, a bullish story might be emerging for soybeans yet. [ 3]

Looking into the cereals, the U.S. Winter wheat harvest is slowing getting going with 4% of the crop cut as of sunday (10% is the five-year average). 81% of the U.S. Spring wheat crop is G/E shape, and while that’s technically down 2 points week-over-week, it’s still better than the 70% G/E rating the crop saw at this time a year how to save lots of money fast ago. 84% of the U.S. Barley crop is rated G/E, down 4 points from last week, mainly because of cold weather in idaho (including snow in some places!) but the barley crop condition was 83% at this time a year ago. Finally, for U.S. Oats, 65% of the crop is rated G/E, up 2 points week-over-week but 2 points behind the 67% G/E rating at this time a year ago. June WASDE report shows much smaller corn crop

As mentioned, the USDA felled U.S. Corn yields in the june WASDE report by 10 bushels how to save lots of money fast to now sit at an average of 166 bushels per how to save lots of money fast acre across the country. [ 4] combined with planted acres falling by 3M, this meant U.S. Corn production was dropped by 1.35 billion bushels to 13.68 billion! Keep in mind that this is still a huge crop, relatively speaking, as it’s only the smallest since 2015/16, but it does drop ending stocks to their lowest since how to save lots of money fast 2013/14!

On the demand front, the USDA cut 2019/20 corn use by 425 million bushels, including 125 million from exports and 300 million bushels from how to save lots of money fast feed and residual use. Going into this june WASDE, I mentioned in monday’s farmlead breakfast brief that I was expecting to see how to save lots of money fast some substitution effects in corn. One interesting datapoint was that U.S. Wheat going into the feed markets was only raised by how to save lots of money fast 50 million bushels. While there was nothing to really report on changes to how to save lots of money fast the U.S. Soybean balance sheet, the USDA did acknowledge in their oilseeds report that “global oilseed consumption continues to grow despite slowing trade and how to save lots of money fast production.” [ 5] WASDE report quiet on the international front

This means that canada’s wheat production number stayed at 34.5 MMT, kazakhstan and argentina held at 13.8 MMT and 20 MMT respectively, and even australia’s number did not move from 22.5 MMT. However, ABARES did lower their estimate of 2019/20 wheat production in the land down undaa just this how to save lots of money fast morning to 21.2 MMT from their first forecast of 23.9 MMT (not to worry; we’ll look more at australia numbers in this coming friday’s farmlead breakfast brief). Where go prices go after this WASDE report?

Now that the june WASDE report is out the way, it’s back to a yield and production debate. However, you can’t have that discussion without a foundational base in terms how to save lots of money fast of the number of acres seeded and this will hinge how to save lots of money fast on prevent plant acres, something mentioned in last friday’s farmlead breakfast brief. In that commentary, I also timestamped that the final corn yield would end how to save lots of money fast up somewhere between 163 and 168 by the january 2020 how to save lots of money fast WASDE report, so I’m in the ballpark of where the USDA pegged things how to save lots of money fast this go around.

The previous high for prevent plant acres in the past how to save lots of money fast two decades was 3.6M acres of corn and 2.2M acres of soybeans. [ 6] most talking heads agree that a new record for prevent how to save lots of money fast plant corn acres will be established this year and my how to save lots of money fast gut says that the number will be above 4.5M acres, but no more than 6M, as the market is asking/paying U.S. Farmers to plant corn. [ 7] after all, yesterday, we saw the ratio between new crop corn prices and how to save lots of money fast new crop soybeans dip below 2.0 for the first time since 2012 when things were how to save lots of money fast really dry in the corn belt.

Concretely, the rally in corn prices will likely last a bit how to save lots of money fast longer and will support wheat and feed barley prices higher. The latter two crops will likely see more gains if how to save lots of money fast drought conditions persist in most parts of western canada, and while the rains this past weekend didn’t fall everywhere in the region, I consider them to be bearish. Finally, soybean and canola prices have international trade disputes weighing on how to save lots of money fast them (read: chinese trade disputes) and so, while mother nature could provide some weather premiums, the international demand function will likely limit any significant rallies.

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